Green Eyed Trader

Another one in the green

Green Eyed Trader — Mon, 16 May 2011 12:06:59 +0000

Another weekend passes with a nice profit to go along with it. The German league had a shocker with all the selection lays going on to win, but the EPL saved the weekend with all 3 selections coming in, Arsenal being one that maybe you didn’t need a system to alert you to! The system stands at 13%, and also rather satisfyingly, the Premier League now joins the Bundesliga and French Ligue 1 in the green pile. Happy i kept faith in my back-testing there. There are some French fixtures today and Wenesday and also Man City will qualify against Stoke too, so keep an eye out for those. The Bundesliga 1 has come to an end with Dortmund champions.

Off from football and a mention for Novak Djokovic who has now gone 39 matches unbeaten, and has beaten Nadal twice on clay in 2 weeks, in the Madrid and Rome Masters events. Could this be a changing of the guard? Maybe not, for me and many others who have seen Nadal bounce back from these types of defeats before – albeit on hard courts – until the Serb can produce that tennis against Rafa in a 5 setter, i.e. Roland Garros then Nadal is still my favourite for the French Open (he ca be backed at 2.04 on Betfair). Let’s hope his fitness isn’t an issue, i’m sure Djokovic will want the chance to prove his critics wrong once and for all.

Good luck all

Wednesday 11th May Games

Green Eyed Trader — Wed, 11 May 2011 10:51:09 +0000

Big schedule in the French Ligue 1 this evening, with a good start to the week’s system with PSG drawing last night having started at 1.48 when i checked. Good times! Only 2 more qualifying then, as below:

Nice v Arles @ 1.42
Marseille v Brest @ 1.36

Good Luck!

Tuesday 10th May Fixtures

Green Eyed Trader — Tue, 10 May 2011 14:27:21 +0000

Just a quick one to post up the fixtures for today – at th emoment theres only actually one, and thas French Ligue 1 tie between PSG and Nancy. PSG currently at 1.48, and if previous results are anything to go by, we have a 66% chance of getting this one right too. Man City in the PL are hovering above evens for now, have a check before the game starts to see where the SP is, but i will be staying out of this one myself.

Good Luck.

Best weekend yet

Green Eyed Trader — Mon, 09 May 2011 12:28:32 +0000

As the title gives away the weekend’s matches proved to be hugely profitable for the system. Of the 11 matches listed as qualifiers – West Ham drifted out in the end – only 3 of the teams went on to win! that brings the system back up to 13% ROI since April, although as mentioned i took out the Italian and Spanish leagues this weekend.

Well done to everyone who ran the selections, and good luck with the upcoming week!

Qualifying matches this weekend

Green Eyed Trader — Fri, 06 May 2011 10:50:36 +0000

Here’s a list of games that qualify for the system – im only mentioning the EPL, Ligue 1 and Bundesliga as these are the 3 leagues ill be laying this weekend:

Aston Villa v Wigan

Newcastle v Birmingham

West Ham v Balckburn (price currently at 2.02 – monitor to see if it comes in to below 2)

Tottenham v Blackpool

Arles v St Etienne

Bordeaux v Sochaux

Leverkusen v Hamburg

Mgladbach v Freiburg

Nurnberg v Hoffenheim

Wolfsburg v Kaiserslautern

Edit: Bolton v Sunderland and Stoke v Arsenal also qualify

Good luck!

2010-2011 Season Fave Laying Graphs

Green Eyed Trader — Thu, 05 May 2011 11:51:03 +0000

Right, just a quick post. I have mentioned that this years results for laying the favourites priced between 1.3 and 1.99 were looking very good, and below is the proof. On the graph is a p/l of the French, German and English top leagues. The horizontal axis is number of bets placed – sorry my excel chart work is not spectacular. As is clearly visible all 3 leagues are in profit across the season, with the EPL having the most number of qualifying games, although the ROI for it and the Bundesliga are very close. I will be implementing this lay system next season across these 3 leagues, and as mentioned il be tracking their performance in the 2011-2012 season against the results below. Hope this helps convince any doubters!

Performance of the 3 leagues based on using £10 lay stakes.

Analyzing and adjusting

Green Eyed Trader — Tue, 03 May 2011 12:15:20 +0000

Well, my last post seems to have sparked a lot of interest in the system mentioned. This could be down to my very well put together graphs and analysis. Or it could be down a link from Green All Over mentioning that i have found a ‘brilliant, yet simple, system’. I of course appreciate the praise and the tripled traffic that resulted from the aforementioned link. Thanks mate!

Back to business now and a quick update. This weekend started off well enough, with a ROI of 16% by the end of Saturday. This was mainly thanks to the Bundesliga, although surprisingly Barcelona and Real Madrid slipped up helping the boost the figures for La Liga – although they are still not pretty overall!

Then came Sunday which saw the system have its biggest losing day by a fair bit, and this left the weekend’s total in the red. So, a bit unfortunate that this happened after a few people will have been trialling the system, but if you are the type of person that will cut a system after a 3 day trial then it’s probably not the thing for you. I now have a month’s worth of trial data and the cumulative graphs of each league’s performance is shown below:

Cumulative P/L of each league, based on £10 lay stakes

As mentioned in the last post only the French and German league are in profit and that remains the same. I mentioned that based on back testing the Premier League is also profitable but this has not been the case over April. This is the importance of tracking things carefully. I can now cut the 3 losing leagues out and can expect to move forward increasing my profit and ROI for the remainder of the season.

Over the next few days i’ll be doing some number crunching on the Championship and League 1 across the last 2 seasons, see if i cant find a trend or two to exploit next season!

Constructive comments as always very welcome. Good luck.

Back-testing laying the favourite

Green Eyed Trader — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 14:37:47 +0000

I’ll start with a quick update on results so far this season, since I started implementing the system at the beginning of April. For those that don’t follow the blog regularly, i am talking about laying favourites, both home and away, across the 5 main European leagues – Ligue 1, Bundesliga, Premier League, Serie A and La Liga. According to Cassini over at Green All Over, in the last stages of the season, certain factors such as lack of motivation and relegation battles lead to crazy results being thrown up. To qualify for the system i use – adapted from his method – the favourite must be priced between 1.3 and 1.99. What I am keen to gauge is whether or not this type of system would be profitable across an entire season.

So far then, the system stands at 14% ROI. Not too bad for something as simple as looking at a coupon and clicking a mouse button. Like i’ve mentioned before i enjoy the analysis involved with sports trading. So, below you will find a graph showing the performance of the lays, split into the 5 leagues:

Profit/Loss by League since April 2011, based on £10 lay stakes

A couple of things are instantly apparent:

Only 2 of the 5 leagues are in profit.
The profits of those 2 far outweigh the losses on the other 3.

So then, a profitable system? It would be easy to think so, but for my money you cant be too sure based on a month’s results. What you can do though is look back over, say, the last 2 seasons, and see how this would’ve performed in each league, then you can weed out the losing leagues. So i did:

ROI(%) by League, for the last 2 seasons

Well, once again, the French and German leagues outperform the rest – but the results over the last two full seasons, show a profit for the Premier League also – and the figures for the current season for the Premier League are very positive too. And, also worth mentioning that while the French league has consistent profits, the amount of games that qualify for the system are fewer than for the other four leagues.

For those of you that also read Green All Over, you will be aware of his Bundeslayga system, and based on my analysis, it seems pretty solid – the German league enjoyed a huge ROI last season. But, things evolve and change in Betfair terms, and what once worked may not work next year. I’ll be keeping these results going and adding this season’s games once they come to an end, but for those of you that are looking for an easy to implement method of profiting from football, i’d say this is a good start. Just be ready to adapt if your results aren’t following previous trends.

Good luck people, constructive comments welcome.

Walking a fine line

Green Eyed Trader — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 09:35:41 +0000

Firstly thanks to Ben from Narrowing the Field for his comment regarding my approach to clay court trading. While i have been experimenting with different angles, i find it too difficult to convince myself of longterm profit when laying short odds players.

What i have been doing though which is worrying is starting to up my stakes, almost without thinking about it. There comes a point when you get so comfortable trading that it becomes second nature, but it’s a very easy trap to fall into. Before you know it one big loss and you’re chasing. I taken a deep breath and won’t be doing it again, but thats easier said than done, especially when a day like today comes along,with 4 very short priced ‘dead certs’.

Onto football and 16 selections this week for the favourite laying system which stands at 17% ROI. Very few French and Spanish games qualify but no less than 7 Italian matches. Arsenal are one of the PL teams that qualify, with a seemingly very short 1.78 against Liverpool.

And as a bonus this weekend we have a Formula 1 race. I was away for last weekend’s racing larks but hopefully i’ll have some time on Sunday to have a go at the Chinese GP. Vettel has made Pole twice int he last 2 years. Repeating the feat may be a decent shout at 1.55. Still havent got over the nerves it takes to let a bet run in this sport, anything can happen in such a quick space of time.

Good luck then guys, will try update sooner rather than later.

Clay Season

Green Eyed Trader — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 10:34:48 +0000

The clay leg of the tour isn’t my favourite, simply because it doesn’t tie in with my style of trading. I have never been a fan of laying at really low odds in the hope of a miraculous come back. This is mainly because i dont trade enough games to make this strategy work. Also i find myself exiting the trade too soon. However, this is the approach for clay matches, that are very volatile due to the inconsistency of service games. I’ll be trying this method then and see how i fare but im not expecting big things. Also with clay for reasons mentioned above i lower my stakes when using my usual methods, so i dont expect a stormer of a week. But, the pennies add up so you never know.

Quick word on the Masters golf on the weekend, i had actually placed a small back of McIlroy at 38 before the start and could/should have laid off before the 4th round, however i was abroad and didnt get round to it! And Mickelson failing to make top 10 didnt help either so all in all a loss there, but you cant win them all. Knowing that for nearly 3/4s of the tournament i could have greened is of slight comfort – my strategy and approach was all good, just didn’t execute the final trade!

Silly Season weekend 2 didn’t quite go as well as weekend 1, with a slight loss – the ROI still in good shape at 17% though.

Almost at the midway point of the month and its going steady, looking at my best month of the year so far, which is especially pleasing seeing as April 2010 was my worst of the year, with a loss of almost four figures. I find it very useful comparing months from previous years, it gives you an added goal to aim for, and keeps your trading grounded and disciplined.

Good luck this week, hopefully i can find the time to update again before the weekend.